September 2023
“You know, Diane, your friends might be going to Taylor Swift concerts, but where I live, we are listening to Oliver Anthony,” said Proncey, a Republican from Alabama. A former state representative, Proncey lost his seat to a candidate with even more conservative leanings. He is among the cohort of 500 American voters I engaged with weekly from 2016 to 2021, seeking to capture the pulse of the nation.
In the autumn of 2023, I revisited this treasure trove of perspectives, reaching out to Proncey and others to better understand the nation’s psyche. He directed me to Oliver Anthony's “Rich Men North of Richmond,” a tune lamenting the frustration in our country as the 2024 presidential election approaches.
I've been sellin' my soul, workin' all day Overtime hours for bullshit pay So I can sit out here and waste my life away Drag back home and drown my troubles away It's a damn shame what the world's gotten to For people like me and people like you Wish I could just wake up and it not be true But it is, oh, it is
In August, the song soared to the top of every chart. On Apple music, what Proncey calls his “anthem” beat Taylor Swift, Billie Ellish, and Olivia Rodrigo, and it was also number one on the Billboard singles chart.
In the turmoil of the current political landscape, Americans are grappling with a dichotomy: President Biden’s tangible achievements juxtaposed against sinking approval ratings and the potent presence of Donald Trump.
After analyzing nearly 200 responses from my diverse pool of interviewees, familiar concerns arose, such as Biden’s age, Trump’s integrity, and the lack of progress on immigration policy. But four unexpected narratives also arose that are shaping the pre-election climate
First, the economy is an enormous problem for Biden. As the president crosses the country touting our strong economic recovery -- a top issue for voters -- Democrats wonder why his ratings are so low. After all, Bidenomics has generated impressive economic statistics in the United States: 13 million new jobs, strong wages, slowing inflation, and low rates of unemployment.
You wouldn’t know that, however, from voters. Says Michelle an Independent from North Carolina, “I don’t know how people can afford to live right now. I mean, who can afford to buy a house or even a car with such high interest rates?” Jim, a Republican from Pennsylvania, agrees: “I went out for a casual lunch yesterday with my son and it cost me $43, and gas prices are through the roof. I’ll take $1.87 gas and mean tweets any day of the week.” Just google “utility rate increases” and you see a long list of shocking numbers, such as an estimate by National Grid last December that the average customer’s electric bill would go up 64%. Proncey’s Senator, Katie Britt, estimates that inflation is costing the average Alabama household $912 per month.
As Americans struggle to make ends meet, there is a significant gap between government narratives and citizen experiences, painting Bidenomics more as an aspirational concept than a reality. Even worse, nearly half of my voters view Bidenomics as a failed program, and most Republicans believe that Biden’s insistence that we have a good economy is a lie.
The second narrative is that the indictments against Trump are driving voters to his defense. Trump’s base – those who will stick with him no matter what he does – tend to comprise about 15% of American voters. However, there are other voters, like Lynn, a Republican from Ohio, who have gravitated to the former president, expressing disdain for what they perceive as a strategy to sideline Trump. “I believe that these lawsuits are created by the Democrats, as a way to keep Trump off the ballot”, she said, “and it feels like a direct assault on my right to pick the person I want to vote for.” Said Jamal, an Independent from Tennessee, “The more you indict, the more we unite.” These voters gravitate to Trump as a protest.
When I asked Trump supporters about January 6th, most felt like Kevin, a Republican from Indiana, who believes that “the people who invaded the Capitol were terrorists on the fringes, and not normal people, and Trump could not have stopped those crazies in any case.” These voters also believe that Biden is corrupt, seduced by his son Hunter to take actions that enriched them both.
Third, most Democrats say they will support Biden. When I asked voters about the president, over 90% of Democrats reported that they will go to the polls and vote for his re-election. Some were enthusiastic, but most were disappointed that it seemed to be their only choice. Said Nancy, a Democrat from Connecticut, “While I am not a Biden fan, I think he presents a role model for compromise and working to improve the everyday person’s life.” Said Tom from North Carolina, “I hate that in the upcoming election, the most likely options for President of the United States are a lifelong criminal and an 80-year-old man, but I will vote for the old guy.” Voters said that they wished they had an alternative, but that it is too late for someone else to step in.
As I have written in the past, as in the last two presidential elections, we can expect that Americans will go to the polls less to vote for their candidates and more to vote against the alternative.
Fourth, one candidate in the race is actually palatable for nearly ¾ of these voters. I asked voters to tell me who they would support if their first choice were not available. For Democrats, Independents and Republicans, Nikki Haley was the candidate with the most support and with almost no negatives. Trump loyalist Barbara from Nebraska said, “I love Trump, but I also love Nikki Haley, because she is strong and full of energy.” Likewise for Lisa, a Democrat from South Carolina, who said, “I will of course vote for Biden, but I would also be good with Pete Buttegieg or Nikki Haley.” Robert, an Independent from Massachusetts, added: I am a big supporter of Nikki Haley. Executive experience as a former governor, strong foreign policy experience as the former Ambassador to the United Nations. She is smart and even tempered. Lots of other pluses such as a first woman as President. She would be respected by our allies and also our enemies.”
Those who didn’t support Haley – primarily Democrats -- were most negative about her views on supporting Trump and on LGBTQ rights. The Republicans who didn’t support here were most negative about her support for Ukraine. However, both groups hoped that her views would change in a general election.
As I sifted through the sentiments expressed in heartfelt conversations with voters, it became clear that beneath the cacophony of political narratives, there lies a unified, chorus of individuals who feel incredible frustration, but who are longing for something more: an economy that works for them, a political landscape that moves past scandals and indictments, and the potential for fresh faces to solve tomorrow’s problems. As we edge closer to the pivotal moment in 2024, it’s this collective belief that we can do better that stands out. It's a reminder that the electorate is not just a passive audience but a vibrant body with hopes, fears, and still, a belief in the American dream.